Democratic Rep. Jasmine Crockett, a rising star within the party who has built a reputation as one of President Trump’s fiercest critics in Congress, has joined the race for the U.S. Senate in Texas. She is seeking to unseat Republican Sen. John Cornyn and provide Democrats a critical victory in their pursuit of flipping the Senate in next year’s midterms.

“Today, under Trump and three decades of Republican rule in Texas, those very Texans are under daily attack,” Crockett wrote on her campaign website. “I’m running to protect Texans from these attacks and safeguard the rights our Constitution guarantees.”

Her decision comes just hours after Colin Allred, who led Democrats’ unsuccessful bid to oust Sen. Ted Cruz in 2024, announced that he is dropping out of next year’s race.

Allred, who lost to Cruz by more than 8 points last year, didn’t mention Crockett in his statement explaining his decision to drop out of the race. But he did make the case that a “bruising” Democratic primary could undermine their chances of ousting Cornyn in the general election, arguing that his party will need to be “unified” if it stands a chance at pulling off an upset in November.

Allred is not giving up his pursuit of elected office. He will instead seek to return to the House of Representatives, where he had previously served two terms before mounting his first Senate run.

Crockett, a civil rights attorney serving her second term in the House, has seen her national profile grow recently thanks to a series of viral moments spurred by her blunt, unapologetic rhetorical style. Last year, she made headlines with her personal criticisms of GOP Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, whom she described as having a “bleach-blonde, bad-built, butch body.” She has also critiqued members of her own party for being “so freakin’ polite.”

With Allred out of the race, Crockett will now face off against Rep. James Talarico, another young House member whose rise has also been fueled by viral social media moments, in the Democratic primary.

Lone Star longshot

Republicans haven’t lost a statewide election in Texas in more than 30 years. It’s been even longer since the state elected a Democrat to the Senate. But Democrats are hopeful that they might be able to end their losing streak next year amid Trump’s declining approval ratings and general dissatisfaction with Republicans among voters.

The closest Democrats have gotten to winning a Senate race in Texas came during Trump’s first term in the White House. In 2018, Rep. Beto O’Rourke came within just a few points of defeating Cruz as part of a nationwide “blue wave” that allowed Democrats to flip control of the House.

At the moment, forecasters say signs are pointing to another strong midterm performance for Democrats, though a lot could change between now and November. Even if another blue wave does materialize, flipping a Senate seat in Texas will be a tall order. In the two Senate elections that have been held since O’Rourke’s near-miss in 2018, Republicans have bounced back to win by significant margins — though notably by less than they had in previous decades.

Cornyn has historically been a tougher opponent than Cruz. He won reelection in 2020 by double digits despite a national shift toward Democrats that helped Joe Biden defeat Trump in the presidential race. In 2014, he defeated his Democratic challenger by 27 points.

The shape of the race could shift dramatically, however, if Cornyn fails to make it out of the Republican primary. He’s facing a tough challenge from Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt, two hard-right Republicans who have accused Cornyn of being insufficiently conservative throughout his Senate career. Recent polls of the primary have shown Cornyn either holding a narrow lead or trailing Paxton slightly.

Paxton has faced serious legal troubles during his tenure as attorney general, and Hunt is a relative newcomer who has been in the House for less than three years, which could make them easier targets for Democratic attacks if one of them emerges as the GOP’s nominee.

Narrow path to Senate control

Democrats are viewed as having a strong chance of flipping the House in next year’s midterms. Gaining control of the Senate is a much bigger challenge. They need to pick up four seats, without losing any of their own, to secure the majority. Their best chances to make inroads are in Maine and North Carolina, but gaining further ground will require winning in traditionally red states like Texas.

Recent elections have given Democrats some reason for hope. They had a dominant performance in off-year races across the country last month and were surprisingly competitive in a special election in a deep-red Tennessee House district last week.